Projecting a 5 Year Harvest---Part 2

In the last blogpost, Projecting a 5 Year Harvest---Part 1, I provided two tables, one is the table shown below and the other was a table of vines and the years that they were planted. These two tables taken together, with the aid of some assumptions can provide us with projections of harvest for the coming years.

Variety	2019		2020		2021		2022		2023
	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal
Auxerrois	636	50	1670	120
Chenin Blanc	3930	280	8201	655
Chardonnay	291	26	1136	75
Cabernet Sauvignon	332	25	888	70
Cabernet Franc	377	30	872	70
Barbera			110	9

Here are some assumptions made to fill in the chart above.
Projections
Auxerrois
In both 2019 and 2020, we had 485 vines planted in rows 2, 4 and 5 which began bearing fruit. The Table above shows that in 2019 we harvested 636 pounds of Auxerrois which increased to 1670 pounds in 2020. Each row of Auxerrois contains approximately 189 vines. We train the vine to double Guyot and typically leave 5 shoots on each arm. The Auxerrois typically produces two clusters per shoot which means that each vine has a potential to produce 20 clusters.
Year 2021: For 2021, the same number of vines from rows 2, 4 and 5 will be in play, for approximately 485 vines. Assuming that each cluster will be 3 ounces, the projected harvest would be 1818 pounds.
Year 2022: From the above Table, it appears that the Auxerrois began producing grapes 3 years after being planted, so in 2022, the vines in row 2, 3, 4 and 5 will be bearing fruit. The approimate number of vines will increase to 676. Once again assuming that each vine will carry 20 clusters and each cluster will weigh 3 ounces, the projected harvest would be 2535 pounds.
Year 2023: By 2023, the entire block of Auxerrois should be producing grapes so that means that there will be 945 vines each producing 20 clusters weighing 3 ounces giving us a total harvest weight of 3544 pounds.
Chenin Blanc
For the Chenin Blanc, both in 2019 and 2020, rows 6-16 were producing fruit. In 2020, rows 17-22 were added to the harvest weight so we saw the weight more than double. Similar to the Auxerrois, we train the vines to double Guyot and typically leave 5 shoots on each arm. The Chenin Blanc typically produce two clusters per shoot which means that each vine has a potential to produce 20 clusters. The clusters on the Chenin Blanc clone 982 are densely packed and larger that the Auxerrois and the typical weight is approximately 4 ounces.
Year 2021: We expect the entire block of Chenin Blanc to be producing grapes. That means that there will be 2259 vines of clone 982 to 832 vines of clone FPS-1 for a total of 3091 vines. If we assume that each cluster weighs 4 ounces that would be a total of 15,455 pounds at harvest.
Year 2022: Year 2022 will be projected to be the same weight giving us 15,455 pounds at harvest:
Year 2023: In year 2023, we hope to have the entire 17 rows at full capacity which means 189 vines in each row. Assuming 20 clusters per vine, the total harvest weight would be 16,065.
Chardonnay
We are still learning our way around the best viticultural practices for Chardonnay. Our Chardonnay is the first to show signs of downy and powdery mildew and is a challenge for us. We did dramatically better in taking care of the Chardonnay reflected in the harvest weights of 291 pounds in 2019 versus 1136 pounds in 2020.
Year 2021: Each row of Chardonnay contains 189 vines for a total of 1512 vines. We train the vines to double Guyot and typically leave 5 shoots on each arm. The Chardonnay typically produces only one cluster per shoot which means that each vine has a potential to produce 10 clusters. If we assume that each cluster weighs 3 ounces the harvest weight in 2021 will be 2835 pounds.
Year 2022 and 2023: For years 2022 and 2023 we expect that the weight will remain the same unless the shoots begin to produce 2 clusters per shoot or if the cluster weight increases from 3 ounces to something higher than that.
Cabernet Sauvignon
We have had harvests of Cabernet Sauvignon in both 2019 and 2020. The weight of the harvest has increased from 332 pounds in 2019 to 888 pounds in 2020. We train the vines to double Guyot and typically leave 5 shoots on each arm. Each shoot can carry 2 clusters. This clone of Cabernet Sauvignon forms a loose cluster so each cluster may be 3 ounces.
Year 2021: In year 2021, if each vine had 10 shoots and each shoot carried 2 clusters, there will be 20 clusters on each vine. Assuming that each cluster weighs 3 ounces, the total harvest weight will be 1418 pounds.
Year 2022 and 2023: Year 2022 and 2023 will yield the same weight unless there is an increase in cluster weight.
Cabernet Franc
We have had harvests of Cabernet Franc in both 2019 and 2020. The weight of the harvest has increased from 377 pounds in 2019 to 872 pounds in 2020. We train the vines to double Guyot and typically leave 5 shoots on each arm. Each shoot can carry 2 clusters and we assume that each cluster weighs 3 ounces.
Year 2021: In year 2021, if each vine had 10 shoots and each shoot carried 2 clusters, there will be 20 clusters on each vine. Assuming that each cluster weighs 3 ounces, the total harvest weight will be 1418 pounds.
Year 2022 and 2023: Year 2022 and 2023 will yield the same weight unless there is an increase in cluster weight.
Barbera
We have done something a little different with the Barbera. We have spaced the Barbera vines a meter apart so that each row contains approximately 250 vines. In 2020, we had our first harvest meaning that those vines that we planted in 2017 were mature enough to bear some fruit. In 2020, we harvested 110 pounds of Barbera. We trained the Barbera to single Guyot and each Guyot carried 8 shoots. Each shoot had 1 cluster. The Barbera form small, loose clusters and each cluster might weigh 2 ounces.
Year 2021: In 2021, we will probably have 250 vines for which we can lay down a single Guyot. If we leave 8 shoots and if each shoot carries one cluster with a cluster weight of 2 ounces, we will harvest 250 pounds of Barbera.
Year 2022 and 2023: In 2022, the vines planted in 2019 in row 35 may be mature enough to train and bear fruit. If we make the same assumption of 8 shoots per cane and with each shoot carrying one cluster weighing 2 ounces, we could harvest 500 pounds of Barbera.

Variety	2019		2020		2021		2022		2023
	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal
Auxerrois	636		1670		1818		2535		3544
Chenin Blanc	3930		8201		15,455		15,455		16,065
Chardonnay	291		1136		2835		2835		2835
Cabernet Sauvignon	332		888		1418		1418		1418
Cabernet Franc	377		872		1418		1418		1418
Barbera			110		250		500		500

The projected numbers in the above Table are very conservative place holders for the true harvest values based on the assumptions that were made for each variety. Still it is interesting to see in black and white what the harvest might look like.