Projecting a 5 Year Harvest---Part 1

Although we have been harvesting small amounts of Chenin Blanc since 2015, we haven't approached anything near a full vineyard harvest until 2019. So, as of last year, we have two data points regarding the harvest numbers for our varieties. Based on those numbers we can set up some projection of how future harvests might transpire.

Variety	2019		2020		2021		2022		2023
	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal	Lbs	Gal
Auxerrois	636	50	1670	120
Chenin Blanc	3930	280	8201	655
Chardonnay	291	26	1136	75
Cabernet Sauvignon	332	25	888	70
Cabernet Franc	377	30	872	70
Barbera			110	9

Here is a chart of when we planted (re-planted) our different varieties that are in the vineyard. For historical reasons, we always think of the Auxerrois as row 1. The Auxerrois is planted on the west side of the vineyard and each successive row takes us to the east side of the vineyard. All vines were planted in the row from the south end of the vineyard to the north end.

Auxerrois
Although we have only 5 rows of Auxerrois, the chart above shows that it was the most variable planting, meaning that in any given row, the vines come to maturity at different times. Auxerrois row 1 is a mixture of vines planted in 2019 and 2020. Auxerrois row 2 was planted in 2017, 2019 and 2020. Axuerrois row 3 was planted in 2019 and 2020. Auxerrois row 4 was planted in 2017 and Auxerrois row 5 is the most advanced, being planted in 2016.
In 2019, the Auxerrois from rows 2, 4 and 5 gave us fruit that we harvested. The same is true for the harvest that occured in 2020.
Chenin Blanc
From the above chart, most of the Chenin Blanc clone 982, rows 6-16 was planted in 2016. The south half of row 17 was planted in Chenin Blanc clone 982 in 2016. The north half of Chenin Blanc row 17 and rows 18-22 was planted in 2017 with Chenin Blanc clone FPS-1. Our first major harvest of Chenin Blanc occured in 2019 from fruit in rows 6-16, the 982 clone planted in 2016. Last year in 2020, we harvested fruit from the entire Chenin Blanc plantings from rows 6-22.
Chardonnay
The 8 rows of Chardonnay rows 23 - 30 was planted in 2016 and although we had a small harvest in 2019, our first major harvest occurred in 2020.
Cabernet Sauvignon
The two rows of Cabernet Sauvignon clone 412 rows 31 and 32 was planted in 2016. Our first harvest occurred in 2019 and we had an increase in the harvest in 2020.
Cabernet Franc
The two rows of Cabernet Franc are planted with two different clones. Row 33 is planted with clone 214 and row 34 is planted with clone 327. We had our first harvest in 2019 and we had an increase in the harvest in 2020.
Barbera
We have 2 rows of Barbera. With the Barbera, we are trying a very close spacing so instead of approximately 189 vines per row, we have 300 vines per row. Row 36 was planted in 2017 and row 35 was planted in 2019. In 2020, there was a bit of filling in that occured at the north end of the vineyard. We had a very small harvest from row 36 of the Barbera in 2020.
This sets the stage of how I plan to make a projection of what the harvest might be in 2021 under ideal conditions. Stay tuned for Part 2 of this blog.